Movie #2 in a series is often bigger than #1—Aliens, Catching Fire, Despicable Me 2, Spider-Man 2, Terminator 2 etc etc etc. Avengers was the #3 domestic movie of all times. Will Avengers: Age of Ultron beat it?
What do you think?
While common sense suggests fans of the Vision, Scarlet Wtch and Quicksilver will give A:AOU that teensy boost needed to put it over the top according to the Motley Fool’s Tim Beyers, analyst Jaime Brugueras of Networked Insights has looked at the tweets and thinks that A:AOU will open at about $240 million, besting Avengers $207 milion.
Brugueras says Networked Insights classifies the social web. Every tweet and post is measured according to 15,000 identifiers, including emotions such as excitement, disgust, horror, and so on. The more emotion detected in the post, the more likely it indicates intent.
Twitter provides the most intelligence. “When we work with studios, we have data on 3 million blogs, YouTube, Disqus, WordPress,” Brugeras says. “We account for conversation on all those platforms as well as Wikipedia page views. Each of them adds value. But Twitter is the kingpin and offers the most value.”
Networked Insights studied 400 films dating to 2012 and found that, on average, a positive tweet lifts opening weekend box-office receipts by $560.
And not to keep banging that drum, but its also suggested that the Black Widow-centric trailer recently released has made this a hit with a broad-based audience: the opening weekend crowd is expected to be about 42% female and 58% male. Well within all of the data we’ve been crunching here for some time.
However, A:AOU’s reign at the top may be short-lived. There’s this little thing called Star Wars: The Force Awakens coming later this year, and people seem to have been tweeting themselves senseless about it. Either way, the Mouse is smiling.
Heidi MacDonald is the founder and editor in chief of The Beat. In the past, she worked for Disney, DC Comics, Fox and Publishers Weekly. She can be heard regularly on the More To Come Podcast. She likes coffee, cats and noble struggle.