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In particular, despite your claims to the contrary about only dealing with launches of new books into the direct market, you actually did take account of TPBs with regard to four new Vertigo books (Exterminators, American Virgin, Scalped and Army@Love):

“Four Vertigo books in terminal decline. Even bearing in mind that collection sales tend to be a significant factor here, surely this can’t go on forever.”

Either you accept that you don’t have info on the TPBs, in which case you simply can’t comment, or you take a guess at their effect, in which case Heinz’s explanation (that TPB’s *have* actually taken over as Vertigo’s major earner and therefore lessened the importance of the DM, a la Johnny DC) is a good explanation for Vertigo’s otherwise odd decision to keep these books going, IMO. In any case, simply claiming that you don’t have ‘hard data’ so aren’t willing to speculate won’t wash (because that’s precisely what you did in your comment).

This feeds into the debate you’ve been having with Brian Wood, of course. Saying that analysing incomplete information is ‘valuable’ and not ‘harmful’ isn’t good enough. Even if Wood’s wrong about the harm, incomplete information can be valueless or even misleading. You need to take a guess about how the incompleteness of the information affects your analysis, including whether it renders analysis entirely impossible. You do that for Johnny DC. I don’t understand why you’re reluctant to make that leap for Vertigo and instead are willing to pronounce books dead on the strength of the DM numbers alone.

I’m glad Sinestro War is doing big numbers for DC. :)

As always, these sales analyses that The Beat blog does are often interesting to look through. Some products at DC may have risen slightly in sales, but there were others that went down. And coming into the latter category, we have Supergirl, which d…..

Given all the properties they’ve already got in their library, I don’t think Vertigo would have to close shop anytime soon, even if they stopped selling periodicals altogether.

“If writer and Fables creator Bill Willingham decides to move on, at this stage, Vertigo might as well call it a day, as far as periodicals are concerned.”

Now what exactly does “call it a day” mean? I understood this as the suggestion that Vertigo periodicals are selling so badly that in your opinion it is no longer viable to publish them at all. And since it seems to be accepted wisdom in the comics industry that no publisher can survive publishing only TPB’s without subsidizing them with periodical sales, this amounts to the suggestion that Vertigo should close shop. If I misunderstood this, I’d certainly like to know what I was meant to infer from this statement.

Regarding your further clarification, I did indeed misunderstand you, as I didn’t realize you were just talking about the last year and just those three ongoing series (four if you add Un-Men). I am now very curious to see how Vinyl Underground and Madame Xanadu will do. Maybe they can reverse this trend.

Well, but I didn’t suggest that Vertigo was in financial trouble. I suggested – in the very passage you quoted – they were unable to launch commercially successful new properties into the periodical market.

Given that those are two very different things, I don’t think we’re arguing about semantics. I rather think you inferred something from my comment that’s simply not there.

“DMZ, at least, certainly looks like it might last another few years. That would contradict what you said above, even if it is not selling as good as Fables or Y, it would still be a sustainable “new property”.”

Well, DMZ was launched two years ago. While I agree it seems to be commercially successful, I didn’t really think that far back when I said “recently.” DMZ and the other new properties launched during that time – TESTAMENT, LOVELESS, THE EXTERMINATORS and AMERICAN VIRGIN – debuted with estimated numbers between 16,187 and 22,483.

The imprint’s more recent new property launches – CROSSING MIDNIGHT, SCALPED, ARMY@LOVE, FAKER and THE OTHER SIDE – debuted with estimated sales between 11,461 and 14,578. There’s not even an overlap – by today’s standards, DMZ and its contemporaries launched with blockbuster numbers.

There’s a gigantic gap there, and it seems to be widening as time goes on. Which is the point. Have paperback sales increased so drastically in just two years as to render that sharp a decline in single issue sales meaningless? Who knows, it’s not impossible. Before I have any hard data to support that notion, though, I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.

By the way, while I don’t agree with all of your conclusions, I do appreciate your comments.

“But it’s obvious that they’ve been unable to launch ne properties into the periodical market for quite some time now. ”

If you define the ability to launch new properties as the ability to sustain a new title for longer than two years, then there are very few publishers who have that ability. Even Image, the biggest of the smaller publishers, only has a handful of titles that were started in the last five years and have gone on for more than two years (Invincible and Walking Dead, and probably a few others I’m forgetting). Plus, we don’t know yet how long these lower-selling Vertigo titles will last. DMZ, at least, certainly looks like it might last another few years. That would contradict what you said above, even if it is not selling as good as Fables or Y, it would still be a sustainable “new property”. For god’s sake, even most new superhero concepts from the big two are cancelled after a few years (or earlier, look at Ant-Man) or are at least quite often on the brink of cancellation (Runaways, Blue Beetle).

“To automatically presume that therefore the verifiable decline in sales in Vertigo’s periodicals is necessarily balanced out by the probable increase in book sales would be a bit of a stretch, though, from where I’m standing.”

We’ll just have to agree to disagree there. To me, it seems more plausible to assume this than not to assume this, for all the reasons I have given, but you are right in saying that we cannot prove this.

I’d like to end this long and interesting discussion with a few personal words, if I may. I always enjoy reading your reports and I thank you for the time and effort you put into them. I’ve noticed in recent months that you get criticized a lot for the content of your reports and many of these criticisms seem unfair to me. However, I would like to respectfully suggest that when you write comments like the one I quoted in my last post, you consider how your words might read to the people who make their living producing these books, and even to simple fans like me. You might want to consider the fact that because of the popularity of your reports, your comments have much more weight than the usual online discussions. Anway, I very much look forward to reading your reports as long as you keep writing them.

““If writer and Fables creator Bill Willingham decides to move on, at this stage, Vertigo might as well call it a day, as far as periodicals are concerned.” which seems to imply that Vertigo is on the brink of death.”

That passage of mine you’re quoting ends with “as far as periodicals are concerned” for a reason, you know. I don’t think anybody presumes Vertigo are on the brink of death. But it’s obvious that they’ve been unable to launch ne properties into the periodical market for quite some time now. I think that’s worth noting.

“Would any company that is in financial trouble increase its output?”

Again, I don’t think I’ve suggested Vertigo are in financial trouble.

“If the TPB market has grown tremendously, and Vertigo has a constant share in it, then it follows directly that their TPB sales have indeed risen “tremendously”.”

Yes, that’s a possibility. And Randy’s observation about the number of DMZ collections he’s selling in comparison with those of TRANSMETROPOLITAN or THE INVISIBLES supports that notion. We still don’t have any comprehensive or systematic data about that, though.

At the same time, however, we do have comprehensive and systematic data about the periodical market. And what it tells us is that, unlike Marvel and DC proper, who have experienced tremendous growth in both the periodical AND the “graphic novel” market since the year 2000, Vertigo’s periodical sales have been decreasing quite significantly.

“Your insistence that “all available data” suggests otherwise seems wrong-headed, as you seem to ignore all we know about the TPB market.”

The problem being, we don’t “know” much about the “graphic novel” market at all. We’re getting anecdotal reports and tidbits of information scrambled together from various sources, market segments and time periods here and there. And I’m not ignoring them – I think they’re worth keeping at the back of the mind. They’re not comprehensive or consistent enough to draw any broad conclusions about the market, though.

“I said that the fact that the cancellation point is significantly lower in recent years proves the rising importance of TPB sales and the decreasing importance of periodical numbers.”

And that’s where we disagree, Heinz. As I said, it sounds plausible enough and I’m not ruling it out as a possibility. But I don’t believe that we know nearly enough about “graphic novel” sales to treat it as fact.

We know that the average Vertigo periodical is selling fewer copies than it used to. And we know that the collection market as a whole has grown significantly. That much is clear. To automatically presume that therefore the verifiable decline in sales in Vertigo’s periodicals is necessarily balanced out by the probable increase in book sales would be a bit of a stretch, though, from where I’m standing.

“Crossing Midnight sells as badly in monthly numbers as Deadman did. Why is the one cancelled and the other not?”

That’s a valid question. TESTAMENT and DEADMAN are canceled, but CROSSING MIDNIGHT, which sells in the same area, is continuing for the time being. Perhaps it’s getting more rope because it was only launched a few months ago, or perhaps its collection sales are strong enough to warrant continued publication, or perhaps there’s another internal reason for it entirely. It’s not a new phenomenon, at any rate – there have always been books which outlasted other titles despite selling worse, and not just at Vertigo or DC.

“I don’t quite buy that as a sign of improved health, given that all available data suggests otherwise, but it’s certainly interesting.”

You don’t? Would any company that is in financial trouble increase its output? Wouldn’t they play it safe and only publish what they consider sure sellers? And it isn’t just the number of titles, they’ve also moved away a bit from “traditional” Vertigo material and published more and more unusual books. If someone described the concepts of books like American Virgin, Testament or Crossing Midnight to me, my first reaction would be: “Sounds interesting to me, but there’s no way that’s gonna sell.” The fact that they publish so many and so challenging books definitely looks like a sign of confidence and good health to me.

About TPB sales:

“I don’t see a particularly good reason to doubt it. In fact, I’d be surprised if DMZ collection sales were in the same league as those of, say, TRANSMETROPOLITAN or THE INVISIBLES were years back.”

“Obviously, the collection market has grown tremendously in the last seven, eight years, and Vertigo are putting out more books than they used to. But that’s true for pretty much EVERY publisher and imprint in the direct market, and it doesn’t necessarily mean Vertigo collections are selling proportionately better in 2007 than they did in 2003, taking into account the overall growth of the market.”

Um, these two statements contradict each other. If the TPB market has grown tremendously, and Vertigo has a constant share in it, then it follows directly that their TPB sales have indeed risen “tremendously”. It is totally irrelevant for our discussion whether they are selling “proportionately better” as long as they are selling better in absolute numbers. It is still a definite possibility that the decreasing monthly numbers are outweighed by rising TPB sales, and thus there would be no reason to assume Vertigo has a problem (except that they don’t have more big hits like Y or Fables, but there’s no reason to assume they need these to survive). Your insistence that “all available data” suggests otherwise seems wrong-headed, as you seem to ignore all we know about the TPB market.

“I’d agree if their cancellations were unpredictable and all over the place, but that’s not the case. It’s still the books at the bottom of the monthly sales spectrum which tend to be axed. So I’m confident that the periodical numbers aren’t as meaningless as you’d like to think quite yet.”

You miss the point. I said that the fact that the cancellation point is significantly lower in recent years proves the rising importance of TPB sales and the decreasing importance of periodical numbers. Of course, there still is a cancellation point, but as I said, Vertigo has always cancelled books due to low sales (as has any imprint). That is no reason to assume that the imprint is in any kind of trouble. And one more point: This also makes it harder to predict when a title gets cancelled. Crossing Midnight sells as badly in monthly numbers as Deadman did. Why is the one cancelled and the other not? Maybe CM is selling significantly better in TPB form. Maybe the difference is so big that it can actually continue for another year or two. Who knows?

This is anecdotal, but we sell two to three times the number of DMZ trades as we did of TRANSMET and INVISIBLES. Of course, we’re a growing store, so part of that is that we’re bigger and have a bigger customer base now as opposed to then, but it’s not unreasonable to assume that a similar pattern is happening at other stores.

Certainly we sell more DMZ trades in the first week than we did of TRANSMET. And I’m pretty sure our sales momentum is faster, too. We sell a DMZ trade almost every week (sometimes more than one), we sold TRANSMET maybe once a month.

Not sure how relevant this is, but just wanted to provide a direct response that for us, at least, DMZ (and FABLES, and AMERICAN VIRGIN) trades sell better than comparable Vertigo titles a few years ago.